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What do they refer to?

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Lazypierrot - 10 Jan 2009 00:31 GMT
Hello!  I need your help making out what ***that trend*** and  ***the
effect*** refer to.

As to ***that trend**, I suppose that, because of "that", not "this",
***that trend *** refers to "decrease in over all ocean productivity"
rather than "the fact that the oceans are currently warming at about
0.2C per decade".

Concerning ***the effect***, I think it refers to "less mixing with
nutrient-rich water below".

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

They report that in tropical and sub-tropical regions with an average
surface temperature of 15C, plant production closely matched
temperature changes.

"This clearly showed that overall ocean productivity decreases when
the climate warms," said Professor Behrenfeld.

The oceans are currently warming at about 0.2C per decade on average
and scientists expect ***that trend*** to accelerate.

The drop in production occurs because rising surface temperatures
result in less mixing with nutrient-rich water below. The hot water on
top is lighter and essentially floats on the colder water below. This
already occurs in tropical and sub-tropical regions, but the satellite
data show that ***the effect*** is intensifying as the surface gets
hotter.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thank you in advance.

LP
John Varela - 10 Jan 2009 01:19 GMT
> Hello!  I need your help making out what ***that trend*** and  ***the
> effect*** refer to.
[quoted text clipped - 18 lines]
> The oceans are currently warming at about 0.2C per decade on average
> and scientists expect ***that trend*** to accelerate.

The trend is the warming of the oceans.

> The drop in production occurs because rising surface temperatures
> result in less mixing with nutrient-rich water below. The hot water on
> top is lighter and essentially floats on the colder water below. This
> already occurs in tropical and sub-tropical regions, but the satellite
> data show that ***the effect*** is intensifying as the surface gets
> hotter.

The effect is the temperature stratification of the water.

Signature

John Varela
Trade OLD lamps for NEW for email

Peter Duncanson (BrE) - 10 Jan 2009 01:26 GMT
>Hello!  I need your help making out what ***that trend*** and  ***the
>effect*** refer to.
[quoted text clipped - 3 lines]
>rather than "the fact that the oceans are currently warming at about
>0.2C per decade".

I read it the other way!

>Concerning ***the effect***, I think it refers to "less mixing with
>nutrient-rich water below".

I agree.

>-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
[quoted text clipped - 7 lines]
>The oceans are currently warming at about 0.2C per decade on average
>and scientists expect ***that trend*** to accelerate.

It is reasonable to assume that "that trend" refers to the trend mentioned in
the same sentence. I don't really like the way the sentence is worded. I think
the meaning is:

   The oceans are currently warming at about 0.2C per decade on average
   and scientists expect that rate to increase.

0r the same meaning, but different wording:

   The oceans are currently warming at about 0.2C per decade on average
   and scientists expect that warming to accelerate.

>The drop in production occurs because rising surface temperatures
>result in less mixing with nutrient-rich water below. The hot water on
>top is lighter and essentially floats on the colder water below. This
>already occurs in tropical and sub-tropical regions, but the satellite
>data show that ***the effect*** is intensifying as the surface gets
>hotter.

I think that "the effect" refers to the same as "This" at the beginning of the
sentence which in turn refers to what has been described in the previous two
sentence: the reduction in mixing.

>---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>
>Thank you in advance.
>
>LP

Signature

Peter Duncanson, UK
(in alt.english.usage)

Lazypierrot - 10 Jan 2009 02:00 GMT
Thanks a lot everyone.    I just wonder if "the effect" could refer to
"the drop in production", which results from the reduction in mixing.

> >The drop in production occurs because rising surface temperatures
> >result in less mixing with nutrient-rich water below. The hot water on
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
>
> >--------------------------------------------------------------------------­-------------------------------------------------------
Lazypierrot - 10 Jan 2009 02:20 GMT
> > >The drop in production occurs because rising surface temperatures
> > >result in less mixing with nutrient-rich water below. The hot water on
[quoted text clipped - 6 lines]
> > sentence which in turn refers to what has been described in the previous two
> > sentence: the reduction in mixing.

Thanks a lot everyone.    I just wonder if "the effect" could refer
to
"the drop in production", which results from the reduction in mixing.

Or, isn't it possible to read that the subject "This" and " the
effect" both refers to "the drop in production"?

LP
Peter Duncanson (BrE) - 10 Jan 2009 10:36 GMT
>> > >The drop in production occurs because rising surface temperatures
>> > >result in less mixing with nutrient-rich water below. The hot water on
[quoted text clipped - 13 lines]
>Or, isn't it possible to read that the subject "This" and " the
>effect" both refers to "the drop in production"?

My wording was incomplete. I'll try again.

I think that "the effect" refers to the same as "This" at the beginning of the
sentence which in turn refers to what has been described in the previous two
sentences: a drop in production resulting from the reduction in mixing (which
results from the rise in ocean temperature).

I don't think it is possible to be more specific than that because the author
was not specific.

Another example of the lack of clarity in the piece is in the words "The
oceans are currently warming at about 0.2C per decade on average".  That could
refer to the temperature in the upper layer of the oven (near the surface), or
it could refer to the average temperature of the complete body of water from
top to bottom.

Signature

Peter Duncanson, UK
(in alt.english.usage)

mm - 10 Jan 2009 23:11 GMT
>Thanks a lot everyone.    I just wonder if "the effect" could refer to
>"the drop in production", which results from the reduction in mixing.

No.  Satellite data could not at this time show a drop in production.
They can measure surface temperature from a satellite, and thus they
can easily show that it's getting warmer.  I doubt they can tell the
termperature far below the surface with a satellite, but they probably
measure that occasionally in other ways, and if it is not changing, or
changing very little, less frequent measurements are probably
considered sufficient.

More importantly, a phrase like this, that, or the effect should refer
to something very close to its use, like the preceding phrase or
clause if there is one, or the preceding sentence.  

If one wants to refer to something futher back, he should be explicit
and say "the drop in production".  This is also why people disagreed
with you about "that trend".    

Not sure about this but here goes: The difference between this trend
and that trend is not likely to be how far away it is in the
paragraph, but IMO whether the author wants to endorse it or not.  The
authore says *sicentists" expect that trend to continue. It's their
trend.  If the author thought there was such a trend and want to say
so publicly, he might have called it "this trend".

>> >The drop in production occurs because rising surface temperatures
>> >result in less mixing with nutrient-rich water below. The hot water on
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
>>
>> >--------------------------------------------------------------------------­-------------------------------------------------------

Signature

Posters should say where they live, and for which
area they are asking questions. I have lived in
Western Pa.  10 years
Indianapolis 10 years
Chicago       6 years
Brooklyn, NY 12 years
Baltimore    26 years

Lazypierrot - 11 Jan 2009 00:27 GMT
I have thought that the difference  between "this" and "that" was the
physical difference between the determiners and the words they refer
to, thus this should refer to some expressions closer than something
"that" refers to.  If I can call it physical difference, there seems
to be a kind of psychological difference as you have said, which is
quite a revealing comment.

> Not sure about this but here goes: The difference between this trend
> and that trend is not likely to be how far away it is in the
> paragraph, but IMO whether the author wants to endorse it or not.  The
> authore says *sicentists" expect that trend to continue. It's their
> trend.  If the author thought there was such a trend and want to say
> so publicly, he might have called it "this trend".

I really appreciate your comment.

LP
 
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