> > > What's the difference in meaning between:
> > >
[quoted text clipped - 11 lines]
> I wouldn't be surprised if next year it's not you standing up there
> winning the grand prize.
All right, you can look at this two ways. You can figure that the person
lost count of the negatives and wound up saying, literally, the opposite
of what they intended. People do lose track of these things.
Or you can take it literally. Suppose "you" had won the grand prize year
after year after year. Then the person is saying that they think it
quite possible that someone else will win it next year.
There is also the slight possibility that it could be regional
variation. We've seen some odd conditional constructions with "whether"
and "doubt" and "miss" and other phrases that seen to have a regional
component.
> and
>
> I wouldn't be surprised if next year you are standing up there winning
> the grand prize.
The usual. "I wouldn't be surprised if" should mean, more or less, that
I think the thing could happen. Exactly what degree of probability, from
a slight chance to quite probable, is left open.

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Best wishes -- Donna Richoux