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Re: Weather Forecast Percentages
| Jerry Friedman | 02 Jul 2009 03:22 |
> Robert Bannister filted:
>
[quoted text clipped - 8 lines]
>
> You mean you don't have a permanent "heat island" keeping the wet at bay?...r
Except when you have four inches in an hour?
This reminds me that I recently talked with a woman who had just moved
from Arizona to Santa Fe. She said she used to get depressed in
spring because summer was coming.
Now she'd be cheering up, I suppose, with the "monsoon" coming, except
that we've had a weird year. Monsoon in June is crooned to the same
tune.
--
Jerry Friedman
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| R H Draney | 02 Jul 2009 01:37 |
Robert Bannister filted:
>> Now of course they have satellites and ground Doppler weather radars
>> and know all about El Nino and everything and they still can't
[quoted text clipped - 4 lines]
>on his radar screen when we have clear skies. When the rain never
>reaches our shores, however, they never explain why.
You mean you don't have a permanent "heat island" keeping the wet at bay?...r
 Signature
A pessimist sees the glass as half empty.
An optometrist asks whether you see the glass
more full like this?...or like this?
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| Robert Bannister | 02 Jul 2009 00:15 |
> Now of course they have satellites and ground Doppler weather radars
> and know all about El Nino and everything and they still can't
> forecast 8 hours in advance. Sometimes you can look out the window
> and see that the forecast is already wrong.
I like it when the forecaster tells us he can see several thunderstorms
on his radar screen when we have clear skies. When the rain never
reaches our shores, however, they never explain why.
Signature
Rob Bannister
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| John Varela | 01 Jul 2009 17:24 |
> The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of rain
> this evening."
>
> It sounds authoritative and scientific, but what does it actually mean? It's one of those mysteries of life.
Some 30 years ago when the Weather Bureau (I think it was still
called the Weather Bureau at that time) first started giving those
percentages, I asked a cow orker who had a degree in meteorology
what that meant. He hadn't actually worked as a meteorologist for
at least a decade, so he didn't know, but supposed that if a
forecaster had ten indicators that suggest rain, and four of the
indicators say "yes" and six of them say "no", then the probability
of rain would be 40%.
Now of course they have satellites and ground Doppler weather radars
and know all about El Nino and everything and they still can't
forecast 8 hours in advance. Sometimes you can look out the window
and see that the forecast is already wrong.
Signature
John Varela
Trade NEWlamps for OLDlamps for email
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| MC | 01 Jul 2009 12:35 |
The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of rain
this evening."
It sounds authoritative and scientific, but what does it actually mean?
Signature
"Fiction writing is great. You can make up almost anything."
- Ivana Trump
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