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Re: Weather Forecast Percentages
| MC | 01 Jul 2009 17:57 |
In article
<2ac9ff1d-25fb-4abc-b3f8-0be4ed63422a@m18g2000vbi.googlegroups.com>,
> It means, roughly, that if you are in the area for which the
> prediction is valid, and you stand outside for the entire time for
> which the prediction is valid, you have a 70% chance of getting rained
> on.
Okay, I'm spacing here. What does that *mean*?
 Signature
"Fiction writing is great. You can make up almost anything."
- Ivana Trump
|
| JimboCat | 01 Jul 2009 16:56 |
> >The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of rain
> >this evening."
> >
> >It sounds authoritative and scientific, but what does it actually mean?
It means, roughly, that if you are in the area for which the
prediction is valid, and you stand outside for the entire time for
which the prediction is valid, you have a 70% chance of getting rained
on.
More precisely, you could send thousands of people outside and have
them stand in locations all over the area: then there is a 70% chance
that at least one of them will get wet during the period in question.
This is the official line: try googling "probablility of
precipitation".
> Let me make it a little harder. "There's a 50 per cent chance of
> scattered showers today." Does that mean there is a 50% chance of no
> showers, and if the alternative happens, if there are scattered
> showers they will be scatter and only affect part of the area? So
> actually no specific place has a 50% chance of showers, but a lower
> one.
This is just giving a bit of extra - and useful - information. There
is a 50% chance of rain *somewhere* within the area, just as above.
Since the rain is going to be "scattered", however, there is a lower
chance at any particular location.
If thousands of people stand outside throughout the area for the
period of the prediction, there is a 50% chance that at least one of
them will get wet, just as before, but the chance for any particular
one of them getting wet is less than 50%, which is not necessarily
true for widespread showers.
Jim Deutch (JimboCat)
--
"I meant it kept the rain off the face , which umberallas dont do very
well because mainly the rain in the Northern Hemisphere falls at
greater angles the further north you go" -- Habshi, on sci.physics
|
| mm | 01 Jul 2009 16:05 |
>The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of rain
>this evening."
Let me make it a little harder. "There's a 50 per cent chance of
scattered showers today." Does that mean there is a 50% chance of no
showers, and if the alternative happens, if there are scattered
showers they will be scatter and only affect part of the area? So
actually no specific place has a 50% chance of showers, but a lower
one.
Or does it mean every part of the whole area has a 50% chance of
showers, but obviously, since 50% will have no showers, the showers
will be scattered?
>It sounds authoritative and scientific, but what does it actually mean?
Signature
Posters should say where they live, and for which
area they are asking questions. I have lived in
Western Pa. 10 years
Indianapolis 10 years
Chicago 6 years
Brooklyn, NY 12 years
Baltimore 26 years
|
| MC | 01 Jul 2009 12:35 |
The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of rain
this evening."
It sounds authoritative and scientific, but what does it actually mean?
Signature
"Fiction writing is great. You can make up almost anything."
- Ivana Trump
|
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