Re: Weather Forecast Percentages

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Re: Weather Forecast Percentages

Pat Durkin

01 Jul 2009 17:48

>>> The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of
>>> rain this evening."
[quoted text clipped - 11 lines]
> As I understand it, the forecast is for a region. Last I knew, the
> regions in the US were 60 square miles.

I have never heard of that. Could you be referring to the Tornado and
other Severe Storm stations? In that case, we are 120 miles east of
one, and 80 miles west of another. One of our TV weather programs
advertises as "backyard weather", and another announces weather for "our
listening area". On one channel, the station is on the opposite side of
town (about 10 mi away), but that channel also announces the "airport"
weather. The airport is about 2 miles away. I appreciate that those
same programs have updates available online with very area-specific
announcements. My ATT hookup has a "city"-specific page that is only 2
miles away.

Of course smaller and more remote communities may have local airports
and weather stations that provide news through radio broadcasts.

I invested in a weather channels radio and found the US Weather
announcements for my city (Madison) provide terrible reception, while
Green Bay's announcements come in clearly. I think there are something
like 9 such stations in Wisconsin. This system used to be called
"Weatherradio", I think.

> So the forecast means that
> there's a 50 percent chance of showers somewhere in that 60 square
> mile
> region but the whole region won't get rain at once.

Jeffrey Turner

01 Jul 2009 17:04

>> The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of rain
>> this evening."
[quoted text clipped - 9 lines]
> showers, but obviously, since 50% will have no showers, the showers
> will be scattered?

As I understand it, the forecast is for a region. Last I knew, the
regions in the US were 60 square miles. So the forecast means that
there's a 50 percent chance of showers somewhere in that 60 square mile
region but the whole region won't get rain at once.

--Jeff

Signature

The comfort of the wealthy has always
depended upon an abundant supply of
the poor. --Voltaire

01 Jul 2009 16:05

>The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of rain
>this evening."

Let me make it a little harder. "There's a 50 per cent chance of
scattered showers today." Does that mean there is a 50% chance of no
showers, and if the alternative happens, if there are scattered
showers they will be scatter and only affect part of the area? So
actually no specific place has a 50% chance of showers, but a lower
one.

Or does it mean every part of the whole area has a 50% chance of
showers, but obviously, since 50% will have no showers, the showers
will be scattered?

>It sounds authoritative and scientific, but what does it actually mean?

Signature

Posters should say where they live, and for which
area they are asking questions. I have lived in
Western Pa. 10 years
Indianapolis 10 years
Chicago 6 years
Brooklyn, NY 12 years
Baltimore 26 years

MC	01 Jul 2009 12:35
The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of rain this evening." It sounds authoritative and scientific, but what does it actually mean? Signature "Fiction writing is great. You can make up almost anything." - Ivana Trump

Re: Weather Forecast Percentages

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