Re: Weather Forecast Percentages

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Re: Weather Forecast Percentages

John O'Flaherty

01 Jul 2009 13:24

>The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of rain
>this evening."
>
>It sounds authoritative and scientific, but what does it actually mean?

It's a bit ambiguous. Seventy percent for which listener, since the tv
signal probably covers hundreds of square miles? How much rain
qualifies to say it actually rained, a bit of drizzle or a few
millimeters? What exact time limits are defined by "this evening"? And
they have to sum up all those continuously varying things in a single
number, or nobody would listen to them. Still, it may be good enough
to decide whether to go to the ball game at all, or whether to carry
an umbrella for the evening walk, as long as you know that there's no
certainty.

Signature

John

MC	01 Jul 2009 12:35
The TV weather forecaster says, "There's a 70 per cent chance of rain this evening." It sounds authoritative and scientific, but what does it actually mean? Signature "Fiction writing is great. You can make up almost anything." - Ivana Trump

Re: Weather Forecast Percentages

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